Middle East Conflict – Take a Practical Approach 

The ongoing conflict involving Iran in the Middle East is no longer just a geopolitical headline—it is having a direct and immediate impact on global energy markets, oil and chemical supply chains, and ultimately the cost and availability of lubricants across the agricultural, plant, commercial vehicle and automotive sectors.  

 

Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar have shut down roughly a fifth of the world’s API Group III base oil capacity, threatening severe supply disruptions for lubricant manufacturers reliant on Middle East base stocks. Group III base stocks are used to manufacture premium synthetic-grade lubricants, high-performance automotive engine oils, and heavy-duty industrial oils. 

 

As the ongoing tensions in the Gulf continue to drive volatility Witham Group, a British lubricant manufacturer, is advising businesses across the UK to take a proactive approach to lubricant management. With oils and associated products already seeing surging upward price pressures and potential lead time challenges, reviewing current lubricant specifications, usage patterns and stock levels is essential. 

A perfect storm in global energy markets 

At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, responsible for transporting around 20% of global oil supply. With ongoing military activity and restricted tanker movements, supply has been severely impacted. Recent reports indicate that global oil supply losses have reached more than 10–12 million barrels per day, creating one of the largest disruptions in modern energy markets.  

This has driven sharp and sustained price volatility, with crude oil prices surging above $100 per barrel and continuing to fluctuate as the situation evolves. For businesses on the ground—from farms and haulage fleets to workshops and plant operators—this volatility is already feeding through into higher fuel, energy and lubricant costs. 

Beyond fuel: the hidden impact on lubricants 

While fuel price increases are immediate and visible, the effect on lubricants is more complex and potentially more disruptive. 

Lubricants are derived not only from base oils linked to crude, but also from highly specialised additives and chemical feedstocks. These supply chains are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern production and global shipping routes. Industry analysis highlights that the real risk lies in a potential 3–6-month disruption to additive and chemical supply chains, not just crude oil pricing.  

In practical terms, this means: 

• Increased raw material costs  

• Extended lead times  

• Greater price volatility across finished lubricants  

• Potential shortages of certain specialist products  

 

For sectors reliant on uptime—agriculture during harvest, plant fleets on contracts, HGV operators, and busy workshops—this creates significant operational risk. Indeed, at the time of writing the lubricant industry is predicting further future price hikes, not just an initial reaction to what has happened.  

A knock-on effect across key industries 

The ripple effect is being felt across multiple sectors: 

• Agriculture: Rising fuel and fertiliser costs are already increasing production costs and squeezing margins.  

• Commercial Transport: Diesel price increases are putting pressure on haulage businesses and logistics chains.  

• Manufacturing & Plant: Energy-intensive industries are seeing sharp cost increases, with some reporting energy bills rising dramatically.  

• Automotive & Workshops: Parts, oils and consumables are becoming more expensive and less predictable in supply.  

 

Sadly, it now seems this is not a short-term spike—it is a structural disruption that could continue for months depending on how the conflict develops. 

Why supplier choice is critical 

In times of uncertainty, the strength of your supply chain becomes critical. Working with a reputable, established supplier provides key advantages: 

1. Security of Supply – Strong relationships with global producers and diversified sourcing help protect availability when markets tighten.
2. Price Stability & Transparency –While no supplier is immune to global pressures, trusted partners work to smooth volatility and provide clear, honest communication.
3. Technical Expertise – With fluctuating product availability, expert advice ensures you are using the right lubricant alternatives without compromising performance or equipment life.
4. Consistency & Quality – In uncertain markets, inferior or substitute products can create costly failures. Proven, high-quality lubricants protect machinery, reduce downtime and extend asset life.

Planning ahead: what businesses should do now 

To mitigate risk in the current climate, businesses should consider: 

1. Reviewing lubricant usage and stock levels  

1. Planning for seasonal demand (especially agriculture and plant)  

1. Working closely with suppliers on forecasts and alternatives  

1. Avoiding last-minute purchasing in volatile markets  

 

Nigel Bottom, MD of Witham Group commented “The current Middle East situation is a stark reminder that global events can quickly impact everyday operations across the UK’s agricultural, transport, and industrial sectors.  

At Witham Group, we understand the pressures our customers face. Our focus remains on delivering reliable supply, consistent quality, and expert support to our existing customers as priority and helping you navigate uncertainty while keeping your machinery, vehicles and businesses running smoothly. 

Forward planning, coupled with close collaboration with a trusted supplier, can help mitigate disruption, ensure continuity of supply, and protect critical equipment performance during an increasingly uncertain market period.” 

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