Comment – Autonomy, robotics and the speed of change

This week, myself and another industry insider had a day out at Harper Adams University at the wrap up meeting of the Accelerating Agri-Robotics Innovation in the UK (ARRNET) project.

At these things yours truly often sits with a furrowed brow wondering what is being talked about, but this time I had a revelation. The agritech ‘disrupters’ are actually speaking a different language, but mean the same things as the machinery supply chain. For instance the word developer, for us luddites that means a software programmer, but actually the person being referred to, is an engineer.

Anyhow, this got me to thinking about how two camps (the established, reliable machinery supply chain, and the agritech community) could get a little closer together.

If you spend any time around the agritech startup scene, you might think the tractor is about to disappear. Robots will replace heavy machinery, every plant will be managed individually, and farming will become a kind of autonomous digital ecosystem.

It’s an exciting vision – but it sometimes ignores the reality of how agriculture actually works.

Startups tend to approach farming as a technological problem waiting to be solved. Companies such as those building field robots argue that small autonomous machines could replace tractors entirely, delivering precision farming with less chemical use and lower energy inputs.

The established machinery industry sees things differently. For them, farming machinery has always evolved gradually. As I’ve often said, agriculture is “a story of evolution rather than revolution,” and farmers typically keep machines for more than a decade before replacing them.

That difference in mindset creates a tension.

Startups move quickly and talk in disruptive terms: replacing tractors, digitising fields, reinventing agronomy. But the existing agricultural machinery chain—manufacturers, dealers, service engineers and finance providers—operates on long product cycles, proven reliability, and the expectation that equipment must work in harsh field conditions year after year.

Farmers themselves often sit somewhere between the two camps. They are interested in new technology, but they are understandably cautious. Their businesses run on tight margins, and a machine that fails during a narrow planting or harvest window can cost far more than it saves.

So the real future of agricultural robotics is unlikely to be a Silicon Valley-style disruption of farming machinery. Instead, it will probably emerge through collaboration: startups bringing new ideas in robotics, sensors and data, while the established machinery industry contributes the practical engineering, distribution networks and long-term support farmers depend on.

In agriculture, revolutions rarely arrive overnight. More often, they arrive slowly – and on wheels.

Elsewhere:

Back in the real world, the oil price has shot up, and I was wondering if the USA wanted a share of the Lloyds shipping insurance market? Stick with me, in 2024 the insurance premiums paid to Lloyds for global shipping was worth £55Bn , ie 45% of the worlds shipping insurance. so on Tuesday Trump offered to cover the insurance for shipping heading through the Straights of Hormuz (laden with oil)) and escort the ships with US vessels. Interesting by Friday only 9 ships had traversed these particularly dangerous seaways.

With hindsight, and only on this one occasion, I was proven right, in ordering my fertiliser over a month ago. A call to my chosen supplier informed me that all prices for red diesel, heating oil and fertiliser have been withdrawn this week.

Closer to home:

Speaking with one of my agronomist chums, he has been desperately trying to stop his clients rushing out into the field to a) get some fertiliser on and then, immediately b) get stuck to the axles, as its only dry on the top. He has even gone to the extreme of suggesting that several take weeks holiday to let the tide go out..

These things do have a habit of settling down over time, but all the same, interesting times.

Have a good week.

Andy