Comment – a bewildering week, have a cup of tea.

I’m not messing about today, let’s go straight to the big news about the Russian oil deal which Trump has done to apparently appease US voters ahead of the mid term elections.

Although a habitual user of the stuff, I’m no oil expert, so have sought third party informed comment from google for context. The headline is that the whole 6m barrel diesel deal (timed over the next six months) is 1.5 days of US diesel demand. Have a look at my maths here.

Another interesting take on this is the question ‘does Russia have the available diesel stocks to sell to the USA?’  As Ukraine is reckoned to have knocked offline about 50% of Russian oil refining capacity, and Russia historically produced double its home diesel consumption, there may not be a lot about. Or any ships to move it, or any terminals still capable of loading the tankers. Al Jazeera’s view on this makes good reading.

Don’t expect the oil markets to plunge at the resumption of trading on Monday morning.

Whilst the headlines are rightly screaming about this deal, I suspect it says more about Trumps transactional nature, than it does about really doing anything regarding the cost of living for US voters. A recent visitor to the midwest corn belt, idly commented on the near total absence of MAGA flags and paraphernalia adorning the farmsteads. One suspects that the Republicans may not be able to rely on their traditional rump of rural support this time round. Although I note that Trump is allowing red diesel to be used on their roads, something our government could consider.. To be fair, a small contingent of unscrupulous ruralists have been doing this for years in the UK.

Closer to home the government are trumpeting about dedicating over £43 million to set up eight new Robotics Adoption Hubs including one at Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, which will get £6.3m or so to drive productivity with robots in agriculture. This feels like a drop in the ocean regarding what agriculture truly needs to transform and automate, and a brief glance at the global agricultural machinery industries investment budgets would suggest that there may be other priorities in the field.

I shall do my best for British agriculture by roasting some British beef, accompanied by British vegetables for Sunday lunch.

Have a good week.

Andy